Fan Fight

Once again Fan Fight is coming back to you with an exciting, humorous, and insightful view of a main-event fight. And once again we've waited to the very last moment to give it to you. Why? Because we're like that. Because you can't rush greatness. Because the best is saved for last. And because May went by way too quickly.




But we are here now and raring to go. So get ready to receive a complete head-to-toe breakdown of the main event from UFC 131, Dos Santos vs. Carwin. And ask the question that is on every one's mind, can Carwin win? Because hey, that's what you really care about, right? The main event? There aren't any other really cool fights happening at 131 are there?

Other than Ken-Flo vs. Nunes and Maia vs. Munoz and Stout vs. Edwards and...

As many of you already know Shane "The Engineer" Carwin, former UFC heavyweight interim champ, is coming in as a replacement for the former heavyweight champion, Brock Lesnar, who was coaching opposite of Junior "Cigano" Dos Santos on the popular Spike.tv show The Ultimate Fighter and who was set to fight Dos Santos in a grand explosion of testosterone and raw tension that would have built up from the rivalry on the show. Or at least that was the plan until Lesnar suffered from a second bout of diverticulitis and was forced to withdraw.

So now we have Carwin, who fought against the Vanilla Gorilla and dominated him in the first round before gassing and getting embarrassingly submitted in the second round by Lesnar. Both Dos Santos and Carwin are knockout artists. These are two guys who are known to be able to knock out people, nearly at will. Both of their ground games have been left relatively unexplored in the UFC, and both are hungry. At stake? A bout with current heavyweight champion, Cain Velasquez in the future.

Good luck guys, 'cause as you can tell Velasquez takes no prisoners.

And so the stage is set and the players are about to be set in motion. Let's take a look behind the curtains and see who claims what advantages on paper.

Striking

This is an interesting match-up in regards to striking. Both Carwin and Dos Santos are known as knockout artists, both rely mostly on boxing with very few (if any) kicks being thrown by either party. Dos Santos has a crisp and clean technique combined with great strength, he uses combinations and precise accuracy to knock out his opponents. Carwin on the hand doesn't have a lot of technique. He doesn't need it. Why? Because the man is a beast, he hits people in the head and his sheer strength makes them fall asleep.

If Dos Santos has the strength of Iron Man, than Carwin has the strength of the Incredible Hulk.

That said, the Hulk can't fly at supersonic speeds, nor does he have radar and a built in computer.

The result? A very close match-up in the striking department, whoever manages to get the first bombs in will more than likely win the match. With that in mind we give a slight nod to Junior Dos Santos, whose technique and speed will let him land first. He has also managed to knock out more top-class competition than Carwin.

Advantage Dos Santos.


Grappling

Carwin is a former NCAA Division II national wrestling champion and a serious contender in years previous. His takedowns were good enough to get Brock Lesnar, who is a renowned two-time Division I national champion, on his back. This experience and ability will give him the edge to control the fight up against the cage or by taking it to the ground. Even if he hasn't been able to showcase it that much in the octagon, mainly because he knocks his opponents out long before he gets the chance to do so.

Dos Santos has never really faced a wrestler of Carwin's ability or skill and will be at a clear disadvantage in the grappling department.

Advantage, Carwin.


Submissions

This one is a bit more of a toss-up, Dos Santos is ranked slightly higher than Carwin with a brown-belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu while Carwin holds a purple-belt on BJJ. On the other hand Carwin has more legitimate submissions to his name in his bouts with the UFC and WEC. With five submissions to his name he beats Dos Santos three submissions on record, two of which weren't from an actual submission hold but from fighters verbally yielding due either to hits or exhaustion.

But at the same time we must acknowledge that Dos Santos regularly trains with the Nogueira brothers down in Brazil, both of whom are great jiu-jitsu artists and are world renowned for their submission skills.

Although they are pretty even on paper, we believe that Carwin has landed more legitimate submissions due to his wrestling prowess and being able to take the game to the mat, when it comes to actual skill using submissions we must acknowledge Dos Santos as somewhat superior.

Advantage Dos Santos.


Athleticism

This is another interesting match up because Carwin is definitely the stronger of the two, but Dos Santos has the cardio and endurance to go a full three-rounds (and has proved it more than once) and still look good. The only time we've seen Carwin out of the first round he was completely gassed and was unable to keep on defending himself before Lesnar submitted him.

Carwin has radically altered his diet and lost weight trying to increase his cardio, but based past experience the winner is clear.

Advantage to Dos Santos.


Experience

Both fighters have identical records of 12-1-0. Both are top contenders in the UFC heavyweight-division. Both are experienced fighters.

But when you look at the level of competition the two fighters have face, Dos Santos has clearly faced far more big name opponents than Carwin in the form of wins over Stefan Struve, Fabricio Werdum, Cro-Cop, Gilbert Yvel, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Roy Nelson.

This is opposed to Carwin whose wins over big-names only includes Gonzaga, and Frank Mir.

With that in mind it is clear who takes the cake when it comes to experience.

Advantage Dos Santos.

Do you have tickets to the gun show?

So there we have it. The breakdown, and when you add up the numbers the logical choice is Dos Santos for the win by TKO or KO in the first two rounds.

That's the logical choice.

But my gut tells me it isn't going to play out that way. My gut tells me that Dos Santos may be the logical choice but he won't be walking out with hand raised come Saturday night. I predict that Carwin will shoot for a takedown, take Dos Santos to the mat and proceed to ground-n-pound Cigano into an early TKO in the first round.

Why am I choosing my intuition over my logic? Because my intuition is sexier. That's why. And because in this case, I believe it will be proven right.

Well said Al, well said.