Perhaps one of the biggest surprises to the casual MMA fan was the announcement at the end of UFC 127 that the proverbial new kid on the block, Jon "Bones" Jones, was going to be given a shot at the light heavyweight title against the champ Mauricio "Shogun" Rua after Rashad Evans (Shogun's original opponent) blew his knee in training and was forced to quit the fight card.
Although a top contender, the up and coming Jones is still seen as untested at the championship level despite his victory over the then undefeated Ryan Bader at UFC 127. As such the main question on everyone's mind is "Can he do it?"
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| Maybe he should be called Jon "Unorthodox" Jones |
Of course if you've been paying attention you already knew all of this and my little recap probably has you snoring in your computer chair. Well wake up, 'cause now we are getting into the nitty gritty.
I think we can safely assume that Jones is coming in as the underdog here. If not because of Shogun's great record, skills, and reputation then simply because Shogun is the champion and Jones isn't. But we need to ask ourselves, is this the same Shogun who fought in Pride? If not, is he a better or worse fighter? And how does Jones stack up against today's Shogun? Let us look at each of these in turn.
First off, Shogun is not the same up and coming fighter that was beating people left and right in Pride. If for nothing else then that many of the moves and tactics helped Shogun to succeed in Pride are either illegal (i.e. Kneeing a downed opponent [here's looking at you Bisping] ) or not relevant in a cage-match.
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| Hopefully we won't be seeing any of this during the championship match. |
But also because he is no longer a young, healthy up and coming fighter with nothing to lose. Now he has everything to lose. He has a family, a championship belt, and an expiration date that is looming closer and closer. That can create a completely different mindset in a fight, he is not coming from the viewpoint of an aggressive attacker but from a position that is far more defensive.
Second, is Shogun better or a worse fighter than he was? I would say that while he is not the same fighter what he has lost has been made up for with what he gained. He no longer has the same youthful health and aggressive mindset he once had, but he has also gained great experience and confidence. This lets him win fights he would have lost before, but he also now loses fight he may have once won (e.g. Machida vs. Shogun 1).
Third and finally how does Jones stack up against today's Shogun? Quite well actually, enough so that the man listed as the #5 light heavyweight by USA Today is given some actual consideration against the man listed as the #1 light heavyweight, that being Shogun. But why?
First there is the hype. The UFC needs to promote this fight to help make up for the loss of profit that the draw of Shogun vs. Evans would have created. They will emphasize Jones strengths and try there best to make this fight seem like a bigger clash than we might believe otherwise.
Second there is the influence of culture. The UFC is primarily dominant in the USA, and in the US we love rooting for the underdog. The idea of a new contender with nothing but great talent and a dream appeals to the average American. We WANT Jones to win.
Third and most importantly. The look in Jones eyes. This guy has nothing but absolute confidence that he can win this fight. He has the infamous, and hungry, "eye of the tiger". He has already started signing autographs as "Jon Jones, UFC champion". He is young, healthy, talented, unorthodox, and hungry.
In a sense Shogun isn't fighting just another contender but a younger version of himself.
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| It must be "Shirts On" Friday at the UFC |
With that last aspect in mind and remembering that Shogun is coming off of yet another knee surgery I must acknowledge that while Jones may lose, it is also very possible that he may win. And that is what has the entire MMA community on the edge of its seat.
This is not another fight where the outcome is already decided, no matter what anyone tells you. If Shogun wasn't coming off of knee surgery or if he didn't have to worry about feeding another mouth in the family it might be different. But as it stands I have to say that the odds for who will win are dead even at 50/50.
Jones talents and the circumstances around Shogun makes this one of the most exciting championship matches in a long time. We simply do not know who will walk away with the belt, and that not knowing is why Jon "Bones" Jones has so quickly captured the minds of the entire MMA community.
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